If we’ve been doing our job as your fiduciary advisor, you might already be able to guess what our take is on the current market news: Unless your personal goals have changed, stay the course according to your personal plan.
Still, it never hurts to repeat this advice during periodic market downturns. We understand that thinking about scary markets isn’t the same as experiencing them.
So, what’s going on? Why have stock prices suddenly become volatile after such a long, lazy lull, with no obvious calamity to have set off the alarms? While we could point out fears of inflation, interest rate movements, and other potential reasons, we can’t (and no one can) know for sure what exactly moves markets on any given day, and this does not inform us of what will happen next. > SEE MORE
Have you heard of the “January Indicator” or “January Barometer?” This theory suggests that the price movement of the S&P 500 during the month of January may signal whether that index will rise or fall during the remainder of the year. In other words, if the return of the S&P 500 in January is negative, this would supposedly foreshadow a fall for the stock market for the remainder of the year, and vice versa if returns in January are positive.
I’ve heard this for years. And I can remember early on in my career probably giving it too much attention. After all, the financial news loves soundbites, and this was one that could grab viewer’s attention as we wonder about the upcoming year. But what does the evidence show us? Have past Januarys’ S&P 500 returns been a reliable indicator for what the rest of the year has in store? More importantly, should we care or worry about it? > SEE MORE
The US stock market has delivered an average annual return of around 10% since 1926. But short-term results may vary, and in any given period stock returns can be positive, negative, or flat. When setting expectations, it’s helpful to see the range of outcomes experienced by investors historically. For example, how often have the stock market’s annual returns actually aligned with its long-term average? > SEE MORE